แท็กซี่ทางอากาศ: เครื่องบินขึ้นและลงจอดแนวตั้งไฟฟ้า (eVTOL) 2024-2044: เทคโนโลยี, ผู้เล่น

IDTechEx's new report "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft 2024-2044: Technologies, Players" is intended to help companies understand the exciting emerging urban air mobility (UAM) market. This report provides comprehensive detail, from an assessment of the pros and cons of the different electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft design architectures, through to more nuanced detail on opportunities in key enabling technologies, such as aviation grade batteries, advanced electric motors and propulsion systems, composite materials and eVTOL ground infrastructure. Along with information and insight into the eVTOL air taxi market this report contains IDTechEx's 20-year outlook for eVTOL air taxi sales, market revenue, battery demand and battery market revenue.

 

Although "flying taxis" are not yet part of our daily lives, the technology is advancing, regulators are developing certification pathways, and the public is intrigued. Airlines, airports, and aerospace companies are incorporating new types of passenger transport into their plans. Meanwhile, automotive OEMs and others in the broader mobility ecosystem are carefully following developments related to eVTOL aircraft, knowing that they could provide a new sustainable option for passenger transport at the urban and regional level.

 

IDTechEx analysis of air taxi / passenger drone operations within Urban Air Mobility (UAM) suggests that there are frequently talked about areas for air taxi deployment which simply do not look viable, offering commuters no perceivable benefit at a greater expense. However, IDTechEx's research also indicates applications where eVTOL aircraft could provide a faster, more direct, and flexible journey, at a lower cost than competing transport modes. It is this potential which has attracted the attention of huge companies both inside and outside the aviation industry and stirred major investment into this nascent market.

 

 

 

Indeed, many of the world's largest aerospace and automotive companies are ramping up their interest in eVTOL aircraft, recognising it as a potentially disruptive new transport mode. The major aerospace suppliers RTX Corporation, GE, SAFRAN, and Honeywell, are all investing in eVTOL related technologies including electric and hybrid-electric powertrain components, systems for autonomous flight and advanced air traffic management systems. Furthermore, composite material manufacturers like Toray and Hexcel have been working with OEMs on the advanced lightweight materials required for several facets of eVTOL design. The automotive industry is taking an interest as well, with Toyota, Hyundai, Stellantis, XPeng, Suzuki, and Honda, all funding, collaborating on, or conducting their own eVTOL projects.

 

Hundreds of concepts of eVTOL aircraft have been introduced in recent years, however very few of them have actually flown, and even fewer have any outlook for certification, commercial launch, or operations at scale. Some handful of eVTOL companies hope to receive regulatory certification for their eVTOLs by the middle of the decade. The years leading up to 2024 saw some OEMs finishing assembly of type-conforming eVTOLs, which is an important step on the path to achieving type certification required to begin commercial passenger operations. Full scale demonstrators have also been made by few OEMs. These demonstrators are usually larger and more advanced than scale models or prototypes, representing a significant step towards the eventual commercialization of eVTOL aircraft.

 

 

In 2023, companies took steps forward with production facilities as well, announcing site specific plans. Manufacturers are also improving the chances of scale-up by taking steps to make production more efficient, which will enable more rapid production of serial aircraft and aircraft systems at lower cost. Those to market first will have the opportunity to be the face of this electrifying new market as a brand leader at the technological forefront.

 

Much of the focus for batteries has been on cost per energy storage (for example, dollar per kilowatt-hour). But for aviation, which fights a constant battle against gravity, the metric of energy density (watt-hour per kilogram) is even more essential. The industry must achieve the battery performance required to sustain electric vertical takeoff and landing. To enable this, battery density must nearly double from today's approximately 200 watt-hours per kilogram, and these batteries must achieve aviation-grade safety standards. This is critical to reduce the noise and cost of operating these vehicles.

 

This IDTechEx report consolidates some of the most interesting research from the past few years, focusing on the core challenges and opportunities in this emerging industry. While many hurdles remain for passenger advanced air mobility, entrepreneurs, incumbents, and other industry stakeholders are prepared to tackle them. The path to designing and certifying a viable aircraft can be technically challenging and capital intensive. Few sectors of aerospace are as fast-paced as advanced air mobility, but as market entry draws closer, the stakes are only rising. Certification progress, cash consumption and preparations for production and operation are coming to a head.

 

The report addresses key aspects including:

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