Elektro- und Brennstoffzellen-Lkw 2024-2044: Märkte, Technologien und Prognosen

The rapidly growing market for zero-emission trucks is analyzed in the IDTechEx Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2024-2044 report, which covers hydrogen fuel cell, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicle technologies. The report covers the technical and economic aspects of the deployment of zero-emission trucks and presents IDTechEx's granular forecasts for the deployment of medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission trucks through 2044, with an emphasis on the three major markets: Europe, the United States, and China.

 

Even though the fleet of medium- and heavy-duty trucks makes up less than 10% of all on-road vehicles worldwide, the truck industry is responsible for around 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions produced by the global transportation sector due to its big diesel engines and high average yearly mileage. This is equivalent to 5.1% of all CO₂ emissions produced worldwide by burning fossil fuels. Trucks are a target for governments because of their disproportionate emissions output. The truck industry needs to decarbonize quickly if the world is to fulfil its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating the effects of climate change. As a result, the days of trucks with combustion engines fueled by fossil fuels are numbered.

 

Governments everywhere are acting decisively, tightening regulations on exhaust emissions and establishing timelines for reaching net zero emissions as a result of realizing the potentially disastrous effects of unchecked climate change and the harmful effects that vehicle exhaust pollutants have on human health when they are released into urban environments. This will push vehicle makers to develop zero-emission powertrain technologies in the next decades. The commitment to this shift from OEMs and suppliers is growing.

 

In 2023, the electrification of trucks has seen notable advancements, albeit not at the expected pace. While battery-electric Class 8 (>15 tonnes) trucks have not yet dominated the market, there is a consensus that battery electric trucks are suitable for most use cases, especially in the short haul and defined route applications. Today, almost all OEMs either have a battery electric model in series production or are committed to starting production within the next year. Supply chains are maturing, and major tier 1 suppliers are putting substantial resources into parts electrification and shifting focus away from traditional combustion engine powertrains.

 

 

Knowing the daily duty cycle energy requirement is essential for the deployment of battery electric trucks. Due to the high cost of battery packs, optimization that reduces the size of the installed battery while still providing a full day's operation is likely to be the most cost-effective solution. Numerous OEMs provide advisory services, assisting customers in analyzing the energy requirements of their everyday operations so that the vehicle and charging infrastructure can be customized to meet those needs. Customers can select the ideal vehicle for their needs with the aid of modular battery options and an assortment of electric motor sizes. Collaboration with consumers is essential for the effective deployment of these early-generation battery electric trucks (BEV).

 

While the market for battery electric vehicles is expanding, the energy density and specific energy of current lithium-ion battery technologies may limit the range of battery electric trucks by both the maximum weight of batteries that a truck can carry and the available space for batteries within that vehicle. Truck manufacturers now have a way to increase range while maintaining the critical decrease in on-road exhaust emissions thanks to fuel cell technologies. Although the technology shows promise, it will be difficult to lower system costs and implement enough infrastructure for hydrogen refueling to make driving a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) practical. The availability of affordable low-carbon 'green' hydrogen, as highlighted in this IDTechEx report, will also be critical to FCEVs providing the environmental credentials on which they are promoted.

 

Early electric trucks have relied on charging infrastructure designed for light-duty vehicles, but more powerful standards are ready for commercialization and will unlock new applications. Wired stationary charging options range from AC slow with power below 43 kilowatts (kW) to DC fast charging with power up to 350 kW. Higher power standards covered within this report are getting ready for commercial rollout in 2024. ChaoJi in China will deliver up to 900 kW and CharIN's MegaWatt Charging System (MCS) in Europe and North America could deliver up to 3.75 megawatts (MW). Long haul truck applications where considerable amounts of energy is needed to be replenished in short, mandated stops are looking to such standards as enabling solutions. The alternative is hydrogen fuel-cell trucks, which will require a network of hydrogen refueling stations, along with the development of hydrogen generation and transport infrastructure. It is worth emphasizing that for short urban duty-cycles, which do not deplete an electric truck's battery over a day's operation, low power AC depot charging should be enough for most vehicles to recharge the battery overnight.

 

The report discusses the drivers and barriers to zero-emission truck deployment, including total cost of ownership considerations. It presents analysis of ongoing OEM and supplier development work and their goals for zero-emission truck deployment, with case-study detail about battery electric and fuel cell electric truck projects being undertaken by the major players in the industry. The report contains detailed investigation of key enabling technologies for zero-emission truck deployment such as batteries, motors, fuel cells, charging infrastructure and hydrogen combustion engines.

 

The IDTechEx Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2024-2044 report is designed to help businesses across the truck sector plan for the future in this dynamic market. The report provides 80 forecast lines for battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric trucks, giving a twenty-year outlook for truck sales, battery demand, fuel cell demand and market value, with separate forecasts for both the medium and heavy-duty truck markets. This report is intended for companies across the automotive value chain including truck OEMs, parts and systems suppliers, battery and fuel cell manufacturers, electric charging / hydrogen refueling infrastructure developers, truck fleet operators, government agencies, research organizations, and banks financing zero-emission truck deployment.

 

 

Market Forecasts & Analysis:

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